Monday 28 June 2010

Hunza Lake - Disaster and Impending Consequences

Hunza Valley, to all who have seen it, is the true metaphor for heaven on earth. To those of us fortunate enough to see it more then once, and to have traveled to Switzerland and compared the two, it remains a shocking dismal failure of every successive government that the true tourist potential of this unbelievably beautiful valley has not been tapped. Unlike the rest of Pakistan, the residents of these areas realized the true value of trees and forest cover. Several generations put in years and years of hard work in beautifying the valley, growing and maintaining tree orchards that produced the most delicious and juicy fruit. All was well in Hunza and January 4th of this year dawned like any other.

On January the 4th there was a massive landslide on the Hunza River near Attabad. Several successive landslides over the next few days, on January 10th and January 22nd, ensured that the Hunza River was well and truly dammed. What followed was a frustrating and mind boggling apathetic response by the government, who didnt realize the severity of the issue, and by the people of the region themselves who should have made clear the impact and effects that were to come. And even worse still was the eventual response, given the options available.

The Hunza locality, and its entire surroundings are encircled with snow peaked mountains and vast glaciers. In fact, Pakistan's glacial regions are referred to as the "third pole" of the world due to the enormous ice and snow deposits in and around the glaciers. The presence of the worlds longest glacier, Biafo Glacier, and the largest solid ice block, Snow Lake, outside of the two poles justifies its title as such. These glaciers grow in the winter, the freezing temperatures and snow see to that. However when summer comes around these glaciers begin to melt and the purest and freshest water available to mankind swells our rivers and feeds our nation.

This year, the dammed up Hunza River started to pool up, and what was a landslide actually turned into a solid dam wall as the water inflow increased. As the summer months approached the water level began to rise at an astonishing 3 feet a day. Millions and millions of cusecs of water flowed in as the glaciers melted. The rising water levels didnt just creep up to the villages, it jumped. By May 30th, nearly 6 months after the landslides, the dammed up Hunza River had effectively become a lake. Hunza Lake. And the landslide itself was an actual dam. NASA images showed the "Lake" to be 29km in length and in places over 400 feet deep. That is simply astounding. The sheer amount of water that the glaciers feed to our country is simply amazing. Interestingly, had this event taken place a few thousand years ago, this lake would just have been another of the natural beautiful sights that abound this area.

At this point most people would begin to think about the people who live there, and the damage. Statistically speaking; 18,015 people have been displaced, 7 bridges have been inundated, several shops and homes naturally too. The total people displaced also includes those that were relocated in anticipation that the dam might burst and cause a flash flood downstream.

What we as a nation and as individuals lack is foresight, the immediate gratification and the immediate solution are all that we ever manage to look into. I feel for the displaced people and the loss of their homes as much as any other person, but wouldn't a leader have to think somewhat differently. The dammed up river provided us with a long term solution for multiple problems. By completely halting the flow of water, we were given a chance to build dams downstream by the hundreds. If the entire country were to be mobilized there is no dearth of supplies and we could have begun the process as soon as the problem became known. Rather then think for the future or try and tackle our biggest problems, water and electricity in one fell swoop, we as a nation decided to find the easy way out. A spill way was created that would enable the water to start draining from the dam. The flow of water would eventually widen the spillway and it is hoped that the lake would dissipate with time.

GOD himself had mercy on us and gave us a chance to make the most out of it. There was a solution to our water crisis and our electricity crisis. We were offered this very solution by the Chinese in the 1960's who offered to build a dam after every 5km on this very stretch of river, who envisioned Pakistan as a powerhouse for all of Asia, exporting power while utilizing each and every drop of water to feed the fertile lands below. We talk of 15,000 MW of total generating capacity as a nation, the feasibility studies for small dams in this area alone showed 120,000 MW of easy generating power capability. The true potential has been identified in thousands of MW. The surrounding habitat makes it ideal for dams, two sides of the river are sheer cliff and mountain walls and as such only one side need be constructed. People have been relocated before and in much larger numbers for Tarbela and Mangla Dams. This is an opportunity in my eyes, not a disaster, not something to cry over.

Orchids will regrow, people will resettle, bridges will be rebuilt, roads will be relocated; but once the glaciers are gone then they wont come back save for another ice age. And damn it all to hell, if the incumbent government can not see or hear the warning signs and the alarms then what will the country do in another 50 years when it is predicted there will be no glaciers. No glaciers means no water. And what no water means for this agrarian based economy and for the survival of millions is a thought that is unsettling and frightening, not the landslide.